John F. Harris and Jim Vandehei both said it more eloquently than I ever could. "The ascent of an African-American to the presidency — a victory by a 47-year-old man who was born when segregation was still the law of the land across much of this nation — is a moment so powerful and so obvious that its symbolism needs no commentary."
It's time to look ahead to see what this new mandate from the voters could drive a democratic Washington to do. It's also time to stake out predictions for the next election! I know it might seem too early, but this was my SUPERBOWL!!!!
Hilary Clinton is going to keep her Senate seat in New York City. Obama may help raise funds to help her repay her campaign debts. She will sit in Congress and either author or endorse important legislation that will help her differentiate herself from the President-Elect, but will not go more right than she is now. She will not run against Obama in 2012. If Joe Biden is President when we are in the 2012 election cycle, then something terrible has happened and she will portray herself as Mr. Obama's political heir, and may run in 2016 on a platform of "continuing the radical change Pres. Obama began back in 2008.".
Palin will high-tail it to Alaska and cultivate a reputation of good governance. She will hire political consultants to help her distance herself from the moronic comments she's made during this campaign. If she cannot cast off that albatross, then when she runs in 2012, AND SHE WILL, she will lose the primary. If she is able to portray herself as well-informed and intelligent, then she will be a force to be reckoned with. Many pundits say that the Reagan era is over, but I think that Sarah Palin could win in 2012 if she makes the right decisions now. The evangelical vote isn't going away, folks. They will vote for someone with the background and beliefs that she has. Right-wing evangelical groups will begin planning fundraising events for her very, very, VERY soon.
On the subject of the "Reagan Era", many experts believe Obama's victory marks the end of the Conservative Revolution. I strongly disagree. We need only look at the various ultra-conservative ballot propositions, the most famous being Prop. 8 in California. Most of these referendums succeeded, and that tells us two things:
1. Obama's election reflects the public's disgust with the last administration. People didn't feel comfortable electing McCain, someone portrayed by his rival as practically the same thing as our current President. More people voted against their values or party for Obama, than others did for McCain. People were desperate enough for change that they voted for Obama instead of their party's nominated successor to Bush.
2. Those same people are the ones who voted for these ballot propositions. There are plenty of conservatives in the country, and they aren't going away anytime soon.
Obama will have to implement his policies very quickly after his inauguration.
The Legislature will push through almost anything Obama wants within 6 months of his inauguration. After that, their enthusiasm will be tempered with their concern over their reelection campaigns, and legislation will take on a strong moderate flavor.
Obama's economic plans will include another stimulus package within 1 year of inauguration.
Obama will be President during another act of aggression from russia. We will send aid, but will not deploy soldiers. NATO will not allow Georgia in.
Obama will not break his promise of a withdrawal of armed forces in Iraq. The withdrawal will end in 2010. Iraq will fall apart, but he CANNOT break that campaign promise, unless he plans on being a one-term President.
He will win in 2012 unless he has been murdered, or has not withdrawn forces from Iraq, or has mishandled another notable terrorist attack, or if there is a huge market crash within a year of the 2012 election, even if it isn't his fault.
Obama will PROBABLY not be assassinated...
BUT
If Obama is assassinated by a white male, it will be like Martin Luther King's murder all over again. Chicago, Detriot, Washington D.C. will be a war zones. Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson will not take strong positions against violence. The black community will be rightly outraged, but will turn to violence. I could not expect them to refrain from doing so. If any group of people had a long history of being discriminated against, lynched, and downtrodden, and surviving to see one of their own voted President of the United States, only to see him murdered, they would do the same thing.
A Joe Biden administration would be very different from an Obama presidency. He would not honor all of Obama's promises, but would not make any unnecessary attempts to keep our troops in Iraq. He would face Sarah Palin (that is if Mrs. Palin can clean up her image by that time) in 2012 and win, due to the ill-will against whites. Joe Biden would have to carry on Obama's image as a reformer.
